This is one i generally follow in the NFL...
If a team if up by 18 or more at halftime...take the under in the 2nd half. It hit in the Dallas game yesterday.
Idea is team blowing them out...doesn't try to score and just runs clock...Team down will take more chances and not go for longer Field Goals...
The last 5 or so minutes of a game like this is usually teams just trying to get out uninjured as well.
If a team if up by 18 or more at halftime...take the under in the 2nd half. It hit in the Dallas game yesterday.
Idea is team blowing them out...doesn't try to score and just runs clock...Team down will take more chances and not go for longer Field Goals...
The last 5 or so minutes of a game like this is usually teams just trying to get out uninjured as well.
I love 1st and 2nd half bets...and quarters and periods for hockey...call it a quick fix if you like..
But one thing I have noticed in over 10 years of gambling is that if the home team is down at half time and did not cover the 1st half I usually jump on them. I have noticed that a team usually does not cover both halves (1st & 2nd)...JMO
But one thing I have noticed in over 10 years of gambling is that if the home team is down at half time and did not cover the 1st half I usually jump on them. I have noticed that a team usually does not cover both halves (1st & 2nd)...JMO
NEVER take a line is worse than what you would have received before the game.
For example,
The Bulls are a 5 point favorite over the Hawks. The Bulls are down by 3 at HT. The halftime line is Bulls -3.5 so they now have to to win the game by 1 point.
At this point, you can't take the Hawks because you would have them at +0.5 instead of the +5 that you would have received before the game.
For example,
The Bulls are a 5 point favorite over the Hawks. The Bulls are down by 3 at HT. The halftime line is Bulls -3.5 so they now have to to win the game by 1 point.
At this point, you can't take the Hawks because you would have them at +0.5 instead of the +5 that you would have received before the game.
You either take the Bulls or you pass.
ucking:
that 2nd reply is right on the money...if the "favorite" in college or pro football is winning by 17 or more at half...bet the 2nd half under...it has a great record...so far this year it is something like 28-6...producing winners for the rx forum...just the past two i can think of off the top are washington yesterday and seattle on the monday fiasco in philly...:toast: :toast: :toast:
parlayin said:nice...a guy comes in w/ a theory, you berate him by callin his theory horseshit...then call him lazy in another post and flip him off...what a contribution!
His theory is wrong, is there something wrong with me pointing it out?
Maybe it will save some gamblers money who would have otherwise followed his stupid system.
As far as him asking me to post facts/statistics, I didn't see any from him.
Trust me he doesn't have em because if he did, he wouldn't have made his silly statement.
Pancho Sanza said:
What I said was like telling someone new to sports gambling to never bet a favorite and lay more than 3 points in the NFL. Now does that mean you should never lay more than 3? No. It is just something that I tell someone new to sports betting. It is a simple guideline, nothing else. A person new to halftimes thinks just because a team covered in the 1st half, they will roll in the 2nd half too just like a square thinks favorites will always win by 21 points. It is nothing more than a rule of thumb.
As for the facts, I will share my database with any of these moderators (and not you) if you are willing to put up $100 (or any amount you choose) in escrow with them. I will give them $100 too. You can choose from among JMan, Bucsfan, Dante and Wilheim. If they decide that I do not have the game logs and the sheets that has been tracking halftime lines for the past 2 NBA/NCAA seasons, you keep my $100. Otherwise, I keep yours. If you want to up the ante, be my guest.
Are you going to put your money where your mouth is Pancho Sanza or are you going to keep it up your ass? Talk is cheap so I hope you aren't going to run away and hide.
If PS decides to take me up on my offer, I want to make it clear that I am not saying that my database proves that the betting strategy I proposed is a winner.
I am simply saying that when you take a line worse than what the game started with, you do not reach 49%, let alone 52% or 55% ... and that is why I said to avoid them.
I am simply saying that when you take a line worse than what the game started with, you do not reach 49%, let alone 52% or 55% ... and that is why I said to avoid them.
